Côte d'Ivoire

Growth to remain strong and broad-based

The Ivorian economy has remained remarkably dynamic despite an increasingly uncertain global economic environment. Commodity exports have been supportive of growth, but domestic demand has been the key driver. In 2025, consumption was supported by the increase in employment, in farm-income thanks to the increase in farmgate prices (cocoa and coffee), as well as very low inflation. Investment was buoyed by strong activity in extractive industries (hydrocarbons, gold), incentives from the authorities to increase private sector participation in the economy and public investment in infrastructure.

Growth is set to remain strong in 2026, continuing the trend in place in recent years. Barring extreme weather conditions, agriculture (estimated at around 16% of GDP and 46% of employment in 2024) will expand mainly on the back of increased cocoa production. The latter accounted for 35% of exports in 2024. Over 5 million people depend on the cocoa industry. After having decreased by around 25% in the 23-24 season, and by 9.5% in 2024-2025 due to unfavourable weather conditions and diseases, production is expected to increase by 5.3% to 1.7 million tons in 2025-2026. However, the farmgate price of cocoa, which was initially set at FCFA 2,800/kg (USD 4,890/tonne at current exchange rate) for the March-September 2026 season, had to be lowered to 1,200 FCFA/kg (USD 2,130/tonne at current exchange rate) - down from 1,800 FCFA/kg in 2025. This is because global prices of cocoa have dropped significantly (around USD 3,000/ton by March 2026) due to larger supply from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana and weak demand. As stocks were accumulating due to the price differential and to avoid local exporters from defaulting on contracts, which was the case in 2016-2017, the authorities had little choice but to lower the farmgate price. Production of cashew nuts (6% of exports), which increased by nearly 60% in 2025 to 1.5 million tonnes, and rubber (12% of exports), will also remain solid. The extractive industries should also continue to expand. Oil production (estimated at around 63,400 bpd in 2025) and exports (15% of exports) will continue to increase as the offshore Baleine field (Eni-Petroci consortium), with estimated reserves of 2.5 billion barrels of crude oil and 3,300 billion cubic feet of natural gas, reaches its full potential, which is scheduled for 2028. The gold industry (15% of exports) will continue to benefit from record-high prices, as well as efforts from the Ivorian authorities to better regulate small-scale mining, to lower its environmental impact and reduce smuggling, which leads to significant revenue losses.

As the authorities will implement the National Development Plan (NDP) 2026-2030, the fourth since 2012, GFCF (around 26% of GDP in 2024) will remain robust. The 2026 budget provides for FCFA 4.2 trillion (USD 7.6 billion) of public investment, mainly targeted at priority infrastructure in agriculture, transport (road, rail, airport), energy (grid expansion, hydroelectricity, solar), water and sanitation, education and health. Private investment will also continue growing, consolidated by the government's concrete efforts to improve the business environment (fighting corruption, defending property rights, simplifying the business taxation system and credit conditions for SMEs, etc.) and promote private-public partnerships. As inflation remained low in WAEMU at the beginning of 2026, the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) lowered its policy rate to 3.00% in March 2026. However, considering the impact of the Middle East conflict on energy prices, the BCEAO should take a wait-and-see attitude for the remainder of the year. As domestic inflation is low, consumption (82% of GDP) should remain the primary growth driver, although it could be restricted somewhat by lower farm income due to the adjustments in the farmgate price of cocoa.

Public finances are improving despite the weight of debt service on low public revenues,

Since 2023, Côte d’Ivoire has been consolidating its public finances, assisted by the IMF via three programmes: EFF and ECF arrangements for USD 3.5 billion, as well as an RSF arrangement for USD 1.3 billion. The advancement of reforms under these programmes has been deemed satisfactory by the Fund, which unlocked USD 839.7 million in December 2025 after the fifth review of the EFF/ECF and a fourth review of the RSF. As part of the Medium-Term Revenue Mobilization Strategy framework, the main measures of the 2026 budget are focused on expanding the tax base, streamlining VAT exemptions, reducing tax evasion, increased use of digital solutions and the simplification of the tax administration. Consequently, the fiscal deficit is set to shrink and reach the WAEMU threshold of 3%. Revenues should increase moderately, mainly due to higher proceeds from direct taxes (corporate and income tax), taxes on oil products and mining royalties. Expenditure needs will remain significant, despite some efforts to reduce certain transfers to households and state-owned enterprises. This is because debt-service costs (over 37% of revenues in 2025), and the wage bill (16.5%) absorb a significant portion of public revenue, and the authorities will also continue to invest (24.7%) heavily as outlined in the NDP, leaving little room to make significant savings. The deficit will be financed by domestic borrowing, non-concessional or semi-concessional borrowing from foreign partners (bilateral, multilateral and commercial banks) and bond issues (for instance, a USD 1.3 billion 15-year international bond was issued in February 2026 at a 5.39% yield). Côte d’Ivoire’s debt, which is mostly external (accounting for 64% of total public debt in 2024), is at a moderate risk of distress and is expected to remain so in the medium term. The debt-to-GDP ratio is set to progressively decline in line with the public deficit and robust growth.

External position still robust despite large import needs

The current account deficit, which improved quite significantly in 2025 thanks to record-high prices of gold and cocoa, will widen slightly in 2026. The trend can be chiefly pinned to a smaller trade surplus. While gold prices should remain high and oil exports should ramp up, these will probably not offset substantially lower cocoa prices and slightly lower cashew nut prices. However, imports will continue to increase on back of strong domestic demand for both consumer goods and capital goods. The services deficit will remain large due to payments for freight and operational services for the extractive industries. The primary income deficit will be sustained by the repatriation of dividends from foreign companies and interest payments on external debt. Last, contrary to many EMDEs, Côte d’Ivoire’s secondary income balance also shows a slight deficit as the country hosts many migrant workers from West Africa who send money home, resulting in net remittance outflows. The deficit will be comfortably covered by net FDI inflows (3.8% of GDP in 2025 channelled into sectors such as hydrocarbons, energy and ICT), portfolio investment and loans. WAEMU’s foreign exchange reserves increased substantially in 2025, covering nearly six months of regional imports.

Political continuity after the 2025 elections

As widely expected, President Alassane Ouattara (Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace, RHDP) secured a fourth term in the 2025 presidential elections winning 89.8% of the votes. His landslide victory is primarily due to the fact that the candidacies of the two main opponents were invalidated. Laurent Gbagbo (PPA-CI), who was President between 2000 and 2011, was declared ineligible by the Constitutional Court as his civil rights had been suspended after having been convicted by the Ivorian courts. Tidjane Thiam (PDCI-RDA, the main opposition party) was declared ineligible to run after having lost his Ivorian nationality when he became a French citizen. Although the elections were contested by the opposition, with protests occurring during the campaign, no major incidents took place and Ouattara’s re-election was relatively smooth, especially considering the history of political violence in the country. Quite logically, the RHDP, which has been the dominant political force since 2011, secured a landslide victory in the legislative elections, winning 196 seats out of 255 in the National Assembly. The two-thirds supermajority gives President Ouattara and his government total freedom to implement their reform agenda. However, despite a solid economic track record in recent years, social tensions are expected to persist. Despite high growth, poverty rates remain high and inequalities are increasing, particularly between Abidjan and the rest of the country. Moreover, the security environment is deteriorating in the north of the country on the border with Mali and Burkina Faso where the danger of Islamist terrorism is increasing. That said, threats have been contained until now thanks to increased military cooperation and intelligence-sharing between Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana and Togo.

Last updated : March 2026